C

Decision-thinking is not unlike poker—it often matters not only what you think, but also what others think you think and what you think they think you think. The mental process(过程) is similar. Naturally, this card game has often been of considerable interest to people who are, by any standards, good thinkers.

The great mathematician John von Neumann was one of the founders of game theory. In particular, he showed that all games fall into two classes: there are what he called games of “perfect information”, games like chess where the players can’t hide anything or play tricks: they don’t win by chance, but by means of logic and skills. Then there are games of “imperfect information”, like poker, in which it is impossible to know in advance that one course of action is better than another.

One mistaken idea about business is that it can be treated as a game of perfect information. Quite the reverse. Business, politics, life itself are games which we must normally play with very imperfect information. Business decisions are often made with many unknown and unknowable factors(因素) which would even puzzle(困惑) best poker players. But few business people find it comfortable to admit that they are taking a chance, and many still prefer to believe that they are playing chess, not poker.

59. The subject discussed in this text is ______.

A. the process of reaching decisions

B. the difference between poker and chess.

C. the secret of making good business plans

D. the value of information in winning games

60. An important factor in a game of imperfect information is ______.

A. rules                                  B. luck

C. time                                   D. ideas

61. Which of the following can be used in place of “Quite the reverse”?

A. Quite right.                         B. True enough.

C. Most unlikely.                     D. Just the opposite.

62. In the writer’s opinion, when making business decisions one should ______.

A. put perfect information before imperfect information

B. accept the existence of unknown factors

C. regard business as a game of chess

D. mix known and unknown factors

D

Olaf Stapledon wrote a book called First and Last Men, in which he looked millions of years ahead. He told of different men and of strange civilisations(文明), broken up by long “dark ages in between. In his view, what is called the present time is no more than a moment in human history and we are just the First Men. In 2,000 million years from now there will be the Eighteenth or Last Men.

However, most of our ideas about the future are really very short-sighted. Perhaps we can see some possibilities for the next fifty years. But the next hundred? The next thousand? The next million? That’s much more difficult.

When men and women lived by hunting 50,000 years ago, how could they even begin to picture modern life? Yet to men of 50,000 years from now, we may seem as primitive(原始的) in our ideas as the Stone-Age hunters do to us. Perhaps they will spend their days gollocking to make new spundels, or struggling with their ballalators through the cribe. These words, which I have just made up, have to stand for things and ideas that we simply can’t think of.

So why bother even to try imagining life far in the future? Here are two reasons. First, unless we remember how short our own lives are compared with the whole human history, we are likely to think our own interests are much more important than they really are. If we make the earth a poor place to live because we are careless or greedy(贪婪) or quarrelsome, our grandchildren will not bother to think of excuses for us.

Second, by trying to escape from present interests and imagine life far in the future, we may arrive at quite fresh ideas that we can use ourselves. For example, if we imagine that in the future men may give up farming, we can think of trying it now. So set your imagination free when you think about the future.

63. A particular mention made of Stapledon’s book in the opening paragraph ______.

A. serves as a description of human history 

B. serves an introduction to the discussion

C. shows a disagreement of views      

D. shows the popularity of the book

64. The text discusses men and women 50,000 years ago and 50,000 years from now in order to show that ______.

A. human history is extremely long

B. life has changed a great deal

C. it is useless to plan for the next 50 years

D. it is difficult to tell what will happen in the future

65. Spundels and ballalators are used in the text to refer to ______.

A. tools used in farming

B. ideas about modern life

C. unknown things in the future

D. hunting skills in the Stone Age

66. according to the writer of the text, imagining the future will ______.

A. serve the interests of the present and future generations

B. enable us to better understand human history

C. help us to improve farming

D. make life worth living

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